So, here we are. The last month of the season. Texas has 24 games left. The next one they win, they will exceed last year’s total of 67. Which was also 2014’s total.
That win might not come until Thursday. The Rangers have three on the road against the Yankees starting today. The Yankees, by the way, have the best record in baseball. The Rangers are horrible on the road. If you ran one billion computer simulations, the Yankees sweep all but two.
After New York, though, they head to Baltimore for four. There is no possible logarithmic equation that can predict that series. The Rangers could sweep it. They could lose three of four.
The twenty-four they have left are divvied up like this:
Six against the Yankees. Six against the Athletics. Four against the Orioles. Three against the Rays. Three against the Red Sox. Two against the Astros.
That’s 20 against teams that are over .500 and fighting for a playoff spot. And four against a team that, like the Rangers, threw in the towel long before the season started.
The Rangers are 24-40 against teams over .500, a winning percentage of .375. Over a 162-game season, that would be 60 wins.
They are 43-31 against teams under .500, or .581. If they could just play the bad teams, they would win 94 games.
If only baseball was split between the haves and have nots. Or, more precisely, between the tryings and the tryings not, Texas would be playing games that mean something. Perhaps they should create a separate league for those teams not serious about winning. Or, like soccer, if you aren’t good enough, you get relegated to Triple-A. That would stop the tanking.
Anyway, projecting this out to the final 24, if they continue those winning percentages, the Ranger will win nine more games this season. The predictive model is they will finish this season 76-86.
It would be their fourth sub-.500 finish in six seasons.
Mike Minor (11-8, 3.25) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (10-7, 4.47)
Game time: 12:05