Semien’s strange pattern.


Semien’s game-winning single in the bottom of the ninth capped a 6-5 comeback win over Seattle.

It’s been a while since Marcus Semien was the guy getting the bucket of Gatorade poured on him.

He’s had a bad year offensively in 2024. But, it was to be expected. That’s the pattern of his career. Every odd year, Semien puts up Most Valuable Player numbers. Every even year, Most Vanishing Player.

With Oakland in 2018, he batted .255, with an on-base of .318 and an OPS of .706. That was good for an OPS+ of 95. Meaning, his offensive production was five percent less than the average major league player.

The next year, he finished third in MVP voting with a slash line of .285/.369/.892 for an OPS+ of 139. He had 33 home runs and 97 RBIs.

Then came 2020, his last year in Oakland, his free agency year. His numbers regressed heavily: .223/.305/.679, OPS+ of 89. That earned him only a one-year deal with Toronto, in which he reluctantly had to switch positions from short to second.

All he did with the Blue Jays in 2021 was end up third once again in MVP voting, he made his first All-Star game, was a Gold Glove, and put up an OPS+ of 131, hit 45 home runs and drove in 102, earning him the long-term deal his previous season didn’t. 

The Rangers signed him for seven years. Repeating his pattern, his first year with the Rangers, he regressed to a 106 OPS+. He really didn’t get going offensively until the second half of the season, and even then, it wasn’t great.

But his 2023 season was great. Once again, he finished third in MVP voting, leading the league in runs scored and hits, drive in 100 runs, putting up a 126 OPS+.

This year, like clockwork, Semien has struggled. His OPS+ is below 100 again (meaning his offense is less than average). His on-base percentage is a dismal .301, especially brutal for a leadoff hitter.

Last night, though, he drove in the walk off game winning run in the bottom of the ninth to cap off a 6-5 come-from-behind victory over Seattle in a game the Rangers once trailed 5-0. 

It was a glimpse at last year’s Semien. And, if patterns hold, a look ahead at next year’s.

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